An Investment Management Resource for Federal Employees

  What Happens to your portfolio if.....


What is portfolio stress testing?


  • 1.  The Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, and major hedge funds use stress testing to project their losses in the event of the unexpected.


  • 2.  We start by asking questions like, "What happens if the dollar crashes, the economy falls back into recession, or oil prices skyrocket?" - over 50 scenarios in all.


  • 3.  Our model measures the impact of these scenarios on your investments using history as a guide, giving you a clearer picture of the risks to your portfolio.

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How does stress testing work?


  • 1.  Our software measures how the economy has affected an investment in the past. For instance, we measure how different oil stocks behaved when oil prices skyrocketed in 2008, and how different mortgage lenders performed when home prices rose - and then fell during the 2000's.


  • 2.  The software then uses this data to project how your investments might react to a future scenario.


  • 3.  When running a stress test, each investment in your portfolio is tested against over 50 scenarios in this manner, with the results combined and summarized for easy understanding.


What can I expect upon requesting a stress test?

  • 1.  After completing three short steps, you'll immediately receive stress test results on the investments you select.


  • 2.  If you have any additional questions our would like some additional information you can e-mail us at



Your portfolio can be stress tested against these scenarios: 

Return of Global Growth

What if global economic growth resumes, particularly in emerging markets?

China Slowdown

What if China experiences a hard landing, a slowing of GDP growth to 4-5% from the current 8-9%?

Debt Cliff

What if the US Government fails to compromise on a new budget and raise the debt ceiling, causing a US Government shutdown in 2013?

End of QE

What if the Fed begins to unwind QE, but the economy is not able to sustain growth on its own?

Euro Crisis

What if the deep financial woes in Greece, Cyprus, or another country leads to sovereign defaults and a run on the Euro currency?

Housing Rebound

What if home prices continue their slow but steady recovery over the next few years?


What if dollar weakness or rising energy and commodities prices cause inflation?

Iran Conflict

What if Iran attempts to block the Straits of Hormuz in order to choke off the flow of oil to the outside world?


What impact will Obamacare have on both the healthcare sector and the economy at large?

Oil Price Spike

What if gasoline prices hit $5 per gallon on the backs of supply constraints and geopolitical turmoil?

This portfolio stress test will simulate hypothetical forward looking scenarios based on historical data including correlations between securities prices, several economic indicators, and forward looking potential impacts of those indicators. The historical losses illustration on the following page, and the portfolio stress test itself, does not constitute comprehensive financial advice, and should not be taken as such. Information in the portfolio stress test can never be comprehensive or a complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. The information on this website and in the stress test report is not intended as an offer or recommendation to buy, sell or call on any security, product, service or investment. MyTSPVision does not accept any liability for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information.

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